DANY BLOG

By Jessie Pang and Joyce Zhou

HONG KONG, April 20 (Reuters) - Victims of Hong Kong’s deadliest fire in decades began government-supervised visits to their ravaged former homes on ‌Monday for the first time since the November blaze, looking to retrieve personal items ‌that might have survived.

The flames that engulfed seven residential towers, each of 31 floors in the northern district of ​Tai Po, killing 168 people, took nearly two days to douse, and eclipsed London’s Grenfell Tower inferno of 2017.

"I want to get back my computer most, as some photographs of my son are stored inside," said one former resident, a 50-year-old surnamed Chung, adding that he had readied some canvas ‌bags and tools for the ⁠effort.

"(I am) not sure if I will have enough time, once I get upstairs."

Until May 4, former residents of the complex, Wang Fuk Court can ⁠spend three hours in their flats on each visit, while wearing facemasks, helmets and gloves for protection.

Firemen are among the 1,000 staff tasked to assist the estimated 6,000 visitors, who will be escorted by ​officials to ​ensure items are kept safe.

"I hope everyone will ​abide by the three-hour rule," Warner Cheuk, ‌Hong Kong's deputy chief secretary, told reporters outside the complex, patrolled by officers and cordoned off with orange tape and crowd-control barriers.

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Up to four people can register to enter each home, but for severely damaged flats the number is limited to one.

Many affected residents are elderly, with more than a third older than 65, Midland Realty's analysis of government data shows.

Months after the ‌fire, people in the Asian financial hub are still ​grasping for answers to how it started and demanding accountability.

An ​independent committee began hearings in March ​to decide the causes and government accusations of bid-rigging by construction firms ‌in building projects.

The panel's lead lawyer blamed human ​factors for the failure ​of most of the fire safety systems.

Authorities have threatened severe punishment for anyone who tries to "politicise" the disaster.

In April, the Housing Bureau ruled out redevelopment of the site, on ​grounds of the long time ‌required and surrounding uncertainties. In February the government said it aimed to spend about ​HK$4 billion ($512 million) to buy out the owners.

(Reporting by Jessie Pang and Joyce ​Zhou; Editing by Farah Master and Clarence Fernandez)

Warnings for a tsunami as high as 3 metres have been issued for the Japanese coastline after a powerful 7.4-magnitude earthquake struck off the northeastern coast.

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Andrew Lloyd Webberhas revealed that he is a recovering alcoholic, and that he now attends AA meetings every day – regardless of whether he is at home in London, Hampshire or New York.

The British musical theatre impresario behind hit shows such asThe Phantom of the Opera, EvitaandJesus Christ Superstarfirst announced that he had stopped drinking back in 2016.

At the time, he sold much of his famous wine collection that included cases of Château Pétrus 1982 worth £50,000 each.

But Lloyd Webber, 78, now says that he began drinking again in secret after 18 months.

“I was doing what they call ‘white-knuckling’, without any backup, and I started to worry that I wasn’t being creative,” he toldThe Times.

Lloyd Webber said he realised he needed help last year and that getting sober was “the best thing that ever happened to me”.

“You think it’s a secret, but it’s not,” he said of his past drinking habit. “Everybody knows. I started getting into a downhill spiral and about 18 months ago the family was in a desperate state. My wife was feeling she couldn’t go on.”

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The composer said he had been surprised by how much he enjoyed attending AA meetings: “You go into a room and everybody’s equal. I’ve made friends that I wouldn’t have thought possible.”

Lloyd Webber was also delighted to discover that, without alcohol, he is more productive than ever. He is writing two musicals, one based on the 2006 filmThe Illusionist,and another about the 1911 theft of the Mona Lisa.

He plans to auction off the last of his wine at Christie’s between 22 April to 6 May, with the estimated £300,000 raised to be donated to the Music in Secondary Schools Trust.

Lloyd Webber’s revelation comes shortly after his younger brother, the cellist Julian Lloyd Webber,announced that he is undergoing treatment for prostate cancer.

The musician, who had only just returned to live performances after a 12-year absence due to injury, said he looked forward to making a “full recovery” and had no intention of cancelling any of his engagements.

If you or someone you know is suffering from alcohol addiction, you can confidentially call the national alcohol helpline Drinkline on 0300 123 1110 or visit the NHS website here for information about the programmes available to you.

If you have been affected by this article, you can contact the following organisations for support: actiononaddiction.org.uk, mind.org.uk, nhs.uk/livewell/mentalhealth, mentalhealth.org.uk.

HAVANA (AP) — Cuban PresidentMiguel Díaz-Canelsaid Thursday that whileCubadoes not want military aggression from the United States, his country is prepared to fight should it happen.

Cuba Anniversary

Díaz-Canel spoke during a rally that drew hundreds of people to commemorate the 65th anniversary of the declaration of the Cuban Revolution’s socialist essence.

“The moment is extremely challenging and calls upon us once again, as on April 16, 1961, to be ready to confront serious threats, including military aggression. We do not want it, but it is our duty to prepare to avoid it and, if it becomes inevitable, to defeat it,” Díaz-Canel said.

He spoke astensions remain highbetween the two countries, withCuba’s crises deepeningas a result of a U.S. energy blockade.

Earlier this week, Trump said his administration could focus on Cuba after thewar in Iranends.

“We may stop by Cuba after we finish with this,” he said. He described it as a “failing nation” and asserted that it’s “been a terribly run country for a long time.”

Trump previously has threatened to intervene in Cuba, like he did in early January whenthe U.S. military attacked Venezuelaand halted key oil shipments from the South American country.

Weeks later, Trumpthreatened tariffson any country that sells or provides oil to Cuba.

Both Trump and U.S. Secretary of StateMarco Rubio— whose parents emigrated from Cuba in the 1950s before the revolution — have described the island’s government as ineffective and abusive. The U.S. demands on Cuba's government in return for easing sanctions have included an end to political repression, a release of political prisoners and a liberalization of the island's ailing economy.

Díaz-Canel accused them of trying to construct a “narrative” that has no justification.

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“Cuba is not a failed state. Cuba is a besieged state. Cuba is a state facing multidimensional aggression: economic warfare, an intensified blockade and an energy blockade,” said Díaz-Canel, the main speaker at Thursday’s rally.

“Cuba is a threatened state that does not surrender. And despite everything. And thanks to socialism. Cuba is a state that resists, creates, and make no mistake, a state that will prevail,”Díaz-Caneladded.

Both Cuba and the U.S.have acknowledged talksto resolve the tension, but no details have been disclosed.

The Cuban president recalled the achievements made possible by the revolution and its social welfare system, which allows for free education that has trained thousands of professionals, many of whomhave chosen to emigratedue to the country's economic crisis.

The oil embargo imposed by Trump worsened thealready harsh conditionsbrought on by an economic crisis that has lasted for five years, exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic and a tightening of U.S. sanctions aimed at pressuring for a change in the island’s political model.

Experts have warned of a humanitarian crisis.

Measures to prevent the island from acquiring oil from its Venezuelan, Mexican and Russian suppliers are exacerbating the already poor living conditions of the population, includingprolonged blackoutsand fuel shortages.

The rally commemorated the 65th anniversary of a historic speech by the late leader,Fidel Castro, during a crisis with the United States. That moment marked the ideological course the Caribbean nation would take and its opposition to Washington’s continental hegemony.

Follow AP’s Latin America coverage athttps://apnews.com/hub/latin-america

CASCADE LOCKS, Ore. (AP) — DNA analysis has identified the remains found in acar in the Columbia Riveras those of an Oregon family that went missing in 1958 while on a trip to find Christmas greenery, authorities said Thursday.

The state medical examiner's office has identified parents Kenneth and Barbara Martin and their daughter Barbie from remains located in the river within the wreckage of the car, the Hood River County Sheriff's Office said. The sheriff's office said it concluded its investigation and found no evidence of a crime.

The Ford station wagon thought to belong to the family was found in 2024 by a diver who had been looking for it for several years. Authoritiespulled part of the carfrom the river the following year.

The family vanished in December of 1958. The bodies of two of the family's children were found months after the disappearance, but the other members never turned up.

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The search for the Martin family was a national news story at the time and led some to speculate about the possibility of foul play, with a $1,000 reward offered for information.

“Where do you search if you’ve already searched every place logic and fragmentary clues would suggest?” an Associated Press article asked in 1959, months after the disappearance.

Only the frame and some attached components were retrieved from the water because of the “extent to which the vehicle had been encased in sediment,” the sheriff's office said. Analysis of those items allowed investigators to conclude that it was indeed the Martin family's car.

Later in 2025, the diver located human remains that were ultimately turned over to the state medical examiner's office.

Scientists developed DNA extracts from the remains and generated a profile that was compared with relatives of the Martin family, allowing for the identifications, authorities said.

KABUL, Afghanistan (AP) — The door that once led to a family room now faces nothing but the void. Most of the floor is gone, as are the walls and roof.

Afghanistan Rebuilding Kabul Roads

This used to be Syed Murtaza Sadar’s home inKabul, on top of the barber shop and public bath that was his family’s business. Those, too, are nearly all gone, reduced to bricks and rubble. Sadar and his family were forced to tear down most of the building themselves.

“This was our house and now I am destroying it with my own hands,” the 25-year-old said, taking a brief break from pulling down a brick wall. “It will be very difficult for us.”

Two months ago, municipal authorities came to this street and told home and business owners their properties were being expropriated to make way for a wider road, part of efforts to modernize theAfghancapital's heavily congested streets.

At first, nobody believed them, Sadar said. But then the demolition crews arrived.

The Taliban revive a plan to modernize the streets

Homes, businesses, even a graveyard are being razed across Kabul to make way for road construction. Widened roads, flyovers and underpasses are rapidly replacing narrow and often deeply pot-holed streets.

Much of the plan was drawn up years ago, when Afghanistan had aU.S.-backed government. But most work never got off the ground, mired in red tape, corruption, and security risks due tothe Taliban insurgency.

Shortly after the Talibanseized power in Afghanistanin 2021, in the wake of the chaotic withdrawal of U.S.-led troops, Kabul’s new municipal authorities set about reviving the projects.

In the past four and a half years, roughly 450 kilometers (280 miles) of roads have been built in the capital, Naimatullah Barakzai, Kabul municipality’s representative for cultural affairs, said during a recent news conference. During that time, 11,278 properties were expropriated.

Another 233 projects are planned for this year, with over 1.9 billion afghanis ($29 million) allocated, said Mohammad Qasim Afghan, the municipality’s head of planning.

The road construction projects are paid for entirely by municipal funds, Barakzai said, noting that over the past 4 1/2 years, Kabul municipality had raised more than 28 billion afghanis (about $434 million).

Property owners are given about three months’ notice and paid compensation at rates set by the municipality. In the past year, more than 1.2 billion afghanis ($18.6 million) were paid in compensation, Barakzai said.

Dissent isn’t really an option.

Sadar, the property owner, said demolition crews tore down the front part of buildings in his street. Then authorities told owners they must finish the job themselves.

His business employed about 25 people, Sadar said. It sustained his extended family — five families in all, each with three or four children.

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“If the government gives us money (in compensation) then God willing, I will be able to go back to work and I will be able to buy a house or build a house for myself,” he said. For now, they are living in rented accommodation, eating into their savings.

And yet, Sadar said he is happy the road is expanding. The existing one, with a single lane in each direction, is so choked with vehicles that going anywhere means spending an hour sitting in traffic, he noted.

Construction offers much-needed jobs

At another construction site in the city, project manager and engineer Obaidullah Elham said crews work around the clock, seven days a week, to build a Turkish-designed 1.5 billion afghani ($23 million) flyover and underpass to replace the heavily congested Baraki intersection.

Five hundred workers, skilled and unskilled, are employed on the project, Elham said, providing much-needed jobs in a country withwidespread poverty.

Work on the 470-meter (1,540-foot) long underpass began last July and it is 80% complete, the project manager said, as an excavator dug into the earth behind him. Construction on the flyover began earlier this year. It will be just the second in Kabul.

Even the dead must move

In Kabul’s Qala-e-Khater neighborhood, part of a graveyard that has held the bodies of residents for about 200 years also must make way for a new road that will slice through the community.

Graves lie empty, with large rectangular holes where the dead have been exhumed. Their remains have been moved across the street to another section of the graveyard.

Abdul Wadood Alokozay said his grandfather’s body was among them.

Alokozay's extended family owned three properties in the area. One was a girls' madrassa, or religious school. The other two were homes for his family. All were expropriated and razed to the ground. All that remains is a vague imprint in the muddy ground.

“At first our family (were) all sad for this, that we lost our house,” the 21-year-old said. Even harder was tearing it down themselves, after living there for more than two decades.

As compensation, they received more than $13,000 for all three buildings and have been promised more for the land. The family has built a new, three-story home on other land they owned, overlooking the former site.

Plans for this road have existed on paper for decades, said 30-year-old community representative Shah Faisal Alokozay, Abdul Wadood’s cousin.

“It’s a very important road, connecting east and north Kabul,” he said. “So it is very important for the community.”

Associated Press writer Abdul Qahar Afghan contributed to this report.

Washington— Days after the U.S.-Israel led war with Iran kicked off last month, American intelligence agencies detected signs that the war risked widening beyond the immediate battlefield as Russia and China sought to support Iran to blunt U.S.-Israeli military operations.

Analysts at the Defense Intelligence Agency, the Pentagon's arm for military intelligence, assessed that China was weighing whether to provide Tehran with advanced radar systems, according to multiple U.S. officials familiar with the matter. The deliberations came amid separate reports that Russia had shared intelligence with Iran on American military positions across the Middle East.

While Moscow'stransfer of informationto Tehran has been previously reported by CBS News, China's apparent willingness — early in the conflict and potentially over a protracted timeline — to assist Iran points to a broader, if informal, alignment among powers seeking to counterbalance U.S. ambitions in the region.

U.S. officials, who spoke to CBS News on the condition of anonymity to discuss national security issues, said Beijing had considered supplying Iran withX-band radar systems. This technology would significantly enhance Iran's ability to detect and track incoming threats, like low-flying drones and cruise missiles, and could help protect its air defense systems against advanced strikes.

It remains unclear whether China ultimately moved forward with the transfer but the assessment underscores Washington's concern that the Iranian war is drawing in not only regional adversaries but also global competitors willing to provide critical support, short of direct military involvement, the officials said.

The Defense Intelligence Agency has not responded to a request for comment. The Central Intelligence Agency declined to comment. The White House has not responded to a request for comment.

On Wednesday, the Financial Timesreportedthat Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps used a spy satellite it secretly bought from Chinese company Earth Eye Co., to target U.S. bases in the Middle East, citing leaked Iranian military documents.

U.S. intelligence assessments indicate that Tehran has previously used satellite imagery provided by China, including during the ongoing conflict involving Israel and U.S. forces, two U.S. officials familiar with the matter said. The officials could not confirm whether the imagery was supplied by Earth Eye Co.

A Pentagonreporton China's military released in December said that as of 2024, commercial satellite companies based in China had participated in business exchanges with Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

The 2026 Annual Threat Assessment — an unclassified survey of global security risks compiled by the intelligence community — warned that China is far outpacing other nations in its development of space-based capabilities.

"China has eclipsed Russia as the key U.S. competitor in space. Beijing's rapid deployment of space capabilities positions it to use space to advance its foreign policy goals, challenge U.S. military and technological superiority in space, and project power on a global scale," thereportsaid.

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U.S. intelligence also indicates Beijing has weighed transferring air defense systems to Iran, potentially routed through third countries to obscure direct involvement, the two officials said. CNNreportedlast week that the intelligence community had found that China was preparing to deliver shoulder-fired anti-air missiles systems known as MANPADs to Iran.

Democratic Sen. Mark Warner of Virginia, the vice chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, characterized the reports that China may be providing Iran with new air defense systems as "significant."

"They try to hide themselves. China says, well, this is their private sector. We all know there is no such thing as a true private sector in China. Every company in China has to have its first loyalty to the Communist Party," WarnersaidSunday on "Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan."

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, when asked Thursday about the intelligence assessments, said, "President Trump has a very strong and direct relationship with President Xi, and they've communicated on that, and China has assured us that that indeed is not going to happen."

Mr. Trump is expected to visit China next month in a high-stakes summit driven by several overlapping crises and strategic interests. Mr. Trump said he sent a letter to Chinese President Xi Jinping asking him not to give Iran weapons in an interview that aired Wednesday on theFox Business Network. Mr. Trump did not say when the letters were exchanged.

A spokesperson for the Chinese Embassy in Washington, D.C., declined to address questions about the letters referenced by Mr. Trump, adding that China's position on Iran is "open and aboveboard."

"We uphold an objective and impartial stance and have made efforts to promote peace talks," spokesperson Liu Pengyu said in a statement. "We never engage in actions that escalate conflicts."

Last week, Mr. Trumpthreatenedcountries with an immediate 50% tariff if they supplied Iran with weapons. China's foreign ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun said on Wednesday media reports of Beijing supplying Tehran with weapons were "purely fabricated," and cautioned that any tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on that basis would be met with countermeasures.

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April 15 (Reuters) - The Kremlin's spokesman was quoted as saying on Wednesday that the United States ‌had rejected its proposal that Russia take all ‌of Iran's enriched uranium out of the country as a way ​to help resolve the Middle East conflict.

Russia first proposed last June that it take control of Iran's uranium stock, but no action was taken. According to news reports, Russia ‌issued the proposal again ⁠this week.

"Russia was prepared to accept Iran's enriched uranium on its territory," state news ⁠agency RIA said Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told the Indian television channel India Today.

"This would be a good decision. ​But ​unfortunately the American side rejected ​this proposal."

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U.S. news reports ‌have quoted sources as saying that the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump had ruled out the proposal. For its part, Iran had said any decision would depend on whether it is able to reach an ‌agreement with the U.S., including on ​its nuclear programme.

The U.S. has ​cited Iran's stockpile ​of enriched uranium -- and the possibility it ‌might be able to secure ​a nuclear weapon -- ​as grounds for its attacks on Iran.

A Russian deputy foreign minister last year suggested Russia was willing ​to remove ‌the stockpile from Iran and convert it to civilian ​reactor fuel to help facilitate negotiations.

(Reporting by ​Reuters; Editing by Hugh Lawson)

April 16 (Reuters) - The U.S. House Republican ‌leadership is closing ‌in on a Foreign Intelligence ​Surveillance Act (FISA) extension with small reforms, Politico reported on Thursday, ‌citing four ⁠people involved in the talks.

U.S. President ⁠Donald Trump called upon Republican lawmakers ​on Tuesday ​to ​work together to ‌extend a law that allows American spy agencies to surveil foreigners abroad using data ‌drawn from ​U.S. digital ​infrastructure, ​before the authorization ‌expires next week.

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A ​procedural vote ​is expected at approximately 12:15 a.m. ​Friday.

(Reporting ‌by Akanksha Khushi in ​Bengaluru; Editing by ​Muralikumar Anantharaman)

By Joyce Lee and Kyu-seok Shim

SEOUL, April 15 (Reuters) - North Korea has made "very serious" advances in its abilities to turn out nuclear weapons, with the probable addition of a new uranium enrichment facility, as it stepped up activity at ‌a key complex, IAEA chief Rafael Grossi said on Wednesday.

Enriching uranium can provide an alternative, and experts say, a more ‌effective, path to acquiring weapons-grade material in addition to reprocessing spent plutonium extracted from a nuclear reactor.

Speaking in Seoul, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency confirmed ​a rapid rise in activity at the 5-megawatt reactor, the reprocessing unit, a light water reactor and other facilities at the North's Yongbyon nuclear complex.

NORTH'S NUCLEAR PROGRAMME ESTIMATED AT FEW DOZEN WARHEADS

North Korea's nuclear programme was estimated at a few dozen warheads, he told a news conference, citing signs of activity such as the operation of a light water reactor and activation of other facilities besides Yongbyon.

"All of them point to a very ‌serious increase in the capabilities of the DPRK ⁠in the area of nuclear weapons production," Grossi said, using the initials of the North's official name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.

The watchdog had observed construction of a new facility similar to Yongbyon's uranium enrichment ⁠halls, he said, adding that analysis of external features showed a significant expansion of enrichment capacity.

Grossi told a meeting of the agency's governors this month that it was monitoring a new building at Yongbyon with similarities to an enrichment facility at Kangson, another key nuclear site near the capital Pyongyang.

SATELLITE ​IMAGERY ​SUPPORTS IAEA ASSESSMENT

Satellite imagery from April supported the IAEA's assessment, the U.S.-based Center ​for Strategic and International Studies said on Monday.

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It indicated ‌completion of a suspected uranium enrichment plant capable of producing weapons‑grade material, the centre said in a report.

On Wednesday, Grossi said the agency had not seen any evidence of Russian technology being used in North Korea's nuclear weapons programme.

References in a cooperation pact both countries signed last year appeared to be limited to civilian nuclear projects, though it was too early to draw firm conclusions, he added.

"Moving towards nuclear weapons would never give any country increased security," Grossi said, but could instead trigger proliferation.

SOUTH KOREA'S NUCLEAR SUBMARINE PLAN

Turning to South Korea's programme to ‌build nuclear-powered submarines, Grossi said he invited Seoul to work closely with the ​agency to avert proliferation risks, with formal talks to begin on the matter.

Naval ​reactors pose special challenges as nuclear fuel on submarines can ​go uninspected for long periods during missions.

"It is essential that this activity is not conducive to proliferation of ‌nuclear weapons," Grossi said, adding that the IAEA would seek ​an "ironclad guarantee" against any diversion of ​the material.

South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Hyun reaffirmed in a meeting with Grossi that the country will work with the IAEA with transparency on the nuclear submarine project as a party to the Non-Proliferation Treaty that has taken the highest degree of ​safeguard measures, the ministry said in a statement.

South ‌Korea's submarine ambitions advanced after President Lee Jae Myung and U.S. President Donald Trump finalised joint steps on trade ​and security last November, in which Washington approved its ally's plan to build the nuclear-powered vehicles.

(Reporting by Kyu-seok Shim ​and Joyce Lee; Editing by Ed Davies, Clarence Fernandez and Hugh Lawson)

If you're among those tempted to take hurricane season a little more lightly this year because early seasonal outlooks call forfewer-than-average storms, weather and disaster experts would like a word.

They fear theseattention-grabbing forecastsfor hurricane season may lead to a false sense of comfort and a lack of preparation.

"It doesn't matter what the seasonal outlook says, it takes only one storm," said Brad Reinhart, a senior hurricane specialist at the National Hurricane Center. Reinhart is among the center's specialists, urging people to pay no attention to social media pundits commenting on the seasonal outlooks who emphasize the potentialdimming effect El Niñocan have on would-be storms.

Hurricane outlooks for 2026 do show conditions trending toward a normal or below-normal season, thanks to a potential El Niño in the Pacific Ocean, but that's not the whole story, forecasters said. The number of storms may be unremarkable, but strong storms can still rapidly appear and intensify, as they have done in the past.

Even in years with El Niño, "you can still have very impactful Atlantic hurricanes," Michael Brennan, hurricane center director, told USA TODAY. "The risk is there every year for hurricane impacts regardless of what any seasonal forecast looks like."

Storms of the 2025 hurricane season

Especially given the lack of landfalling hurricanes in 2025, the center's forecasters and others worry about complacency and a failure to preparedisaster kits, evacuation plans, and otherkey potential lifesaving stepsthat should be taken in advance.

Rob Young, a professor at Western Carolina University and director of the program for the study of developed shorelines, finds the whole concept of hurricane season outlooks "problematic."

The outlooks "are like the highest profile information release related to natural hazards that I can think of, yet it's information that we should not use to change in any way how we’re going to approach the tropical storm season," Young said.

"When we have a prediction that comes out that says we may see fewer than average storms in the Atlantic this year, what are people supposed to do with that information?" Young asked. In his view, "they're supposed to ignore it."

"You prepare for a Hurricane Andrew or a Katrina every year because it only takes one," he added.

El Niño and hurricane season

It's well documented that El Niño can havea marked influence on hurricane damage or activity in the Atlantic,dating as far back as studies in the late 1990s. Hurricane formation can be inhibited by strong wind shear over the Atlantic, stirred by the pattern of warmer-than-normal waters in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

Butstudies show that doesn't negate the riskof a landfalling hurricane in the United States. The information about trending patterns is useful to those who manage risk based on probabilities, but is of less importance to the rest of us.

Hurricane Andrew, which formed during a transition between Pacific patterns, made two landfalls in the Bahamas and two in South Florida,reaching the state’s southeast coast at Category 5 intensity. It eventually made a fifth landfall with winds of more than 100 mph near Morgan City, Louisiana.

Andrew is blamed for 65 deaths, with damage in excess of $25 billion, including the destruction of more than 25,000 homes in southern Miami-Dade County and damage to more than 110,000 homes.

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The longest-running seasonal outlook, by a team at Colorado State University, led by senior research scientist Phil Klotzbach, always includes a list of years with conditions similar to those expected across the oceans during the current season. One season the early April outlook pointed to was 2023, which turned out to be a very active year, with 20 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes. That was the year Hurricane Idalia hit Florida, just south of the Big Bend, as a major hurricane.

For this season, the Colorado State forecast listed the probability of landfall for a major hurricane, with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater along the U.S. coast at 32%.

'Bar-fight rules'

Among the factors that could influence the seasonal outcome are the speed of transition to El Niño, ocean temperatures in the Pacific and the Atlantic, and rain over the Sahel region of Africa. For example, studies have shown conditions in the Pacific during the previous winter can sometimes have lingering effects on the Atlantic hurricane season during times of transition between the changing patterns known as the El Niño Southern Oscillation.

Warmer-than-average waters can help storms that do form rapidly intensify and become more dangerous, the meteorologists said. That's one reason Young and others worry about those who live along or inland from the Gulf of America, formerly known as the Gulf of Mexico.

The Gulf – where some of the most destructive storms in history have formed – is like a wild card in any given season, according to Young and former Federal Emergency Management Agency Administrator Craig Fugate.

In a LinkedIn post on April 12,Fugate wrote: "The Gulf plays by bar-fight rules."

"Warm water. Short fuse. Bad attitude," Fugate wrote. "A storm gets in there and suddenly your nice 'below average' season is climbing the wall like a cat in a thunderstorm. That’s why from an emergency management standpoint, we don’t change a thing."

The Colorado State team addressed concerns about complacency in its outlook and in presentations.

"We are forecasting a below-average probability for major hurricane landfalls along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean," the early April forecast states.

There is "much curiosity as to how global ocean and atmosphere features are presently arranged with respect to the probability of an active or inactive hurricane season for the coming year," the team stated. The seasonal outlooks are a way "to satisfy the curiosity of the public and to bring attention to the hurricane problem."

But then comes the additional information that hurricane specialists wish people wouldn't gloss over.

It added: "As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season. Thorough preparations should be made every season, regardless of predicted activity."

Dinah Voyles Pulver, a national correspondent for USA TODAY, writes about violent weather, climate change and other news. Reach her at dpulver@usatoday.com or @dinahvp on Bluesky or X or dinahvp.77 on Signal.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY:Early hurricane season 2026 forecasts include ominous warning