As spring approaches, the ongoing La Niña is beginning to show signs of weakening. We will likely see a neutral phase through the springtime, and this will shift the weather patterns that have been ongoing across the U.S.
Let's break down the seasonal outlooks, each month's change and why this is happening.
Meteorological Spring (March, April And May)
The spring outlook brings some good news for those living in the Northeast. Slightly above-average temperatures are expected, though it starts to trend cooler the farther into New England you go.
While some below-average temperatures are expected this spring for the Upper Midwest as well, the rest of the country will continue to see above-average temperatures, according to the outlook released Thursday by The Weather Company and Atmospheric G2.
Here's how things are looking on a month-by-month basis.
March
For March, cold temperatures are expected to remain across the northern portion of the country. The Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, mid-Atlantic, Northeast and the northernmost portions of the Northern Plains should see temperatures below average for March.
Contrast this with the South, Central U.S. and most of the West, which are expected to be above average.
The Northeast, likely still longing for some more consistent warmth, will have to wait through March as well.
April
April will begin to really see a shift in what has been ongoing for the country over the winter.
While the below-average temperatures remain for the Upper Midwest and even include parts of the Northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest, the same is not expected for the Northeast.
Above-average temperatures are expected to cover the entire region, which is a very welcome change from the consistent cold that remained for parts of winter.
The southern half of the country will continue to see above-average temperatures, and the highest chance for some warm weather will stretch across the Southern Rockies, Southern Plains and Southeast.
May continues the trend of warmups across much of the Lower 48. The areas that should see the most warming are the West, including much of the Rockies. While still above average, the East could see only slightly above-average temperatures.
The only area leaning toward below-average temperatures is New England (plus Michigan's Upper Peninsula).
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Precipitation Outlook
While temperatures are the topic at hand as millions are waiting for shifting seasons, we can briefly talk about precipitation and what the next three months may hold.
It's more of the same. Wetter across the East and drier across the West. This is good for the East as a surprising amount of the region is actually dealing with drought. So, here's to hoping this long-range forecast verifies.
Even though the West has seen a brief pivot in the overall dry and mild season in recent weeks, they look to return to more of what they saw for most of winter.
What Is Causing The Shift And How Certain Are We Of This Forecast?
As we move into spring, the ongoing La Niña is showing signs of weakening.
For those that need a quick refresher, La Niña occurs when the Pacific Ocean sees below-average temperatures across the central and east-central portions of the equatorial region of the ocean. El Niño is the opposite, with warmer ocean temperatures in those regions. These influence our weather across the entire United States and the entire planet.
With a weakening La Nina expected, this means that a new pattern is arising and conditions will shift. This pattern is the neutral phase of El Niño-Southern Oscillation, which in short means that the Pacific waters are not notably above or below average.
So what do neutral conditions mean for the U.S.?
Well, they do cause slightly more uncertainty in these forecasts, so make sure you take these long-range forecasts with a grain of salt.
Why is there uncertainty? With more neutral temperatures in the Pacific, you have a smaller difference between temperatures between hemispheres as summer is ending in the Southern Hemisphere and winter is wrapping up in the Northern Hemisphere.
You also have weaker winds at the Equator due to the less extreme differences between hemispheres, and the winds are the main driving factor for El Niño and La Niña.
(More:La Niña Fading: What Warming Waters Mean For This Spring, Hurricane Season)
But the tendency of neutral conditions during spring is for above-average temperatures in the South and Southeast and cooler temperatures from the Central Plains to the Northeast, which March's and April's monthly forecasts show especially well.
We also have to talk about the jet stream, which is the main driver of our weather. It begins to weaken around this time of year, which means that our weather patterns are not as easy to predict in the long term.
What we are certain of: A shift toward neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions is coming and will lead to some changes across the country. But a lot of factors contribute to a more uncertain forecast.
